Friday, December 4, 2009

Unemployment Drops to 10%



Many are getting excited that the unemployment rate dropped last month from 10.2% to 10%.  Many are looking at this drop as signs of recovery.  I think I will wait until next months figures are out. Remember back in July unemployment dropped back to 9.4% from 9.5% and everyone went gaga only to watch as the figure went back to climbing to 10.2%.

In the strongest jobs report since the recession began two years ago, the nation’s employers all but stopped shedding jobs in November, the government reported on Friday, and they appeared to be on the verge of finally rebuilding the work force.
The sudden and unexpected improvement surprised even the most optimistic forecasters. Instead of yet another six-figure job loss, only 11,000 jobs disappeared last month and instead of another rise in the unemployment rate, it went down, to 10 percent from 10.2 percent in October. 
The thing to keep in mind is while the monthly loss of jobs appears to be slowing, the economy is still shedding jobs. Until the loss of jobs stops and we begin trending positively, optimism and celebration is very premature.


In order to stop job losses, we are going to need more than a positive spin on the negative numbers and much more action than Kabuki theater job summits.

11 comments:

madmath1 said...

I'm still trying to figure out the math that the government is using. Another 11,000 jobs were LOST yet the number of unemployed went DOWN. Uh, can anyone tell me what logic and numeric system they're using because a loss of jobs means an INCREASE of those unemployed unless they're taking 8 hour a day full time jobs and splitting them into two 4 hour part time jobs. Either way, it's not good. This is just BS to make it appear that BO's policies are making a recovery when in fact, it's a scam.

Also note, November is when the hiring is done for the Christmas season, so the fact that hiring was done for the Christmas season and the net was still a loss is really HORRIBLE news that will come back in January with MASSIVE new job losses when these temporary jobs conclude.

Osumashi Kinyobe said...

What madmath said.
Some will hire for seasonal work but when the season ends, it's unlikely those recently employed will hang onto those jobs.
Just my thoughts.

conservative brother said...

They fail to relieve or just flat out refuse to come to grips with the reality that retailers started hiring temp help at the end of October for the Christmas shopping season. The biggest increase in the hiring was in "drum roll please", "TEMPORARY LABOR".

Some people in the news and on wallstreet are so desperate for any good news, they don't want to even analyse it to see if it is truly real.

Janelle said...

Keep the faith, all - the 2010 elections are mid-term and generally carried by those who are regular voters and pay attention to local, state and Federal elections.
Just a guess, but I bet that all of you do and all of you vote.

Dean said...

Don't forget that the unemployment offices were closed for 2 days around Thanksgiving.

Clifton B said...

Madmath1:

Part of the reason is that they are only counting people who collect unemployment. What they are not counting are the folks who have exhausted all their benefits but are still unemployed. The correct jobless rate is more like 17%

You are right about the seasonal help. Watch the numbers jump after the Christmas season. Like I said, I think we are looking at what happened in July.

Clifton B said...

Osumashi:

They key is to look at January's figures for that. If we see a huge jump, you will know why.

Clifton B said...

Conservative Brother:

It appears many in the media are willing to sleep walk into disaster.

Clifton B said...

Janelle:

You had better believe I vote. I am chomping at the bit for 2010. I will do my part to clean house!

Clifton B said...

Dean:

There you go another factor. Like I said we are looking at a repeat of July.

Angie Lee said...

"and they appeared to be on the verge of finally rebuilding the work force."

Just because the job losses appear to be slowing does NOT equal "rebuilding the work force." Where is the "given" that just because losses stop, gains will start. Who's to say it won't be static? Then the unemployment rate still goes down and they will celebrate their VICTORY, even though tens of millions are still unemployed - just not counted as such.

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