The votes have been cast, the voice of the people now heard, but what does it all mean? Here is how I see it.
Bob McDonnell put the hurtin’ on Creigh Deeds, no if and or buts about that. Many pundits in the media and the GOP leadership will all say that McDonnell’s campaign is the template for 2010 and beyond. I disagree.
What I see in Virginia is simply a Red State putting the Red Light back on. In 2008, Virginia with its large black population, simply wanted to participate in history and elect the first black president of the United States. Fine, been there done that and now they are back to regular business. Any Republican singing a conservative song will continue to strike gold here.
Lesson here: Red States are red again, Blue Dogs beware.
Many will look at this race and wonder if New Jersey is turning purple and they will marvel at the turn around. The real story here should be; why was this race so close? Blue State, schmoo state, Corzine was a God-awful governor with approval ratings in the 30’s. Christie should have been able to put the same kind of hurtin’ on Corzine that McDonnell did on Deeds.
The problem here is that Christie mainly ran a campaign that could be summed up as: “I’m not Corzine”. What I think it is that carried Christie over the top was corruption. Here in NJ, we make Blagos and Chris Christie has an excellent record of kicking corruption in the butt.
Lesson here: Running as “I am not a Democrat”, simply isn’t going to be enough in 2010. You still have to give the people something to vote for. Christie’s vague “I will cut property taxes” without explaining exactly how was barely enough.
This was not the race to lose. It leaves so much unfinished business between the GOP leadership and the conservative base. The GOP leadership will use Hoffman’s lost to first prop up their silly notion that conservatism needs watering down and the media will gladly parrot this theme. Second, the GOP leadership will use this loss to further bash and discredit Sarah Palin and those conservatives like her.
On the conservative side of the coin, conservatives now know they can kill RINOs. Getting the 411 out on RINOs past behavior and sinking them in the polls is a real possibility for the conservative base. No longer do we have to accept whatever the GOP sends down the pike.
I think the key factor to Hoffman’s lost was timing. There simply just wasn’t enough time to get the word out on Scozzafava, have her come out of the closet and then have the party fully converge around Hoffman. Heck, how many mail in and absentee ballots must have been cast for Scozzafava when people still thought she was a Republican? How many Republicans must have still voted for her because they lacked the Internet to keep up with all the latest twists and turns?
For GOP Leadership, the days of slapping R’s at the end of everyone’s name are over. The base is actively seeking credentials and is fully capable of rejecting anyone who does not measure up. Choose your candidates wisely!
For Conservatives, timing is crucial. If you are hunting RINOs, get them early. You cannot have them crumble at the 11th hour and expect a victory. If you want to sink a RINO like say, Charlie Crist, then you have to start sinking him TODAY.
Obama and the Democrats
The message, whether acknowledged publicly or not, is clear. People are more than just a little concerned about the economy and the debt. Adding to it or ignoring it, is going to be the Democrat's undoing. Pass Obama/Pelosi Care and they can pretty much expect to be on the unemployment lines in 2010.
For Obama, there is no escaping it; his coat tails are ka-put! No matter what his approval rating is, it does not translate to Democrat safety. Blue Dogs are as vulnerable as hell. Pundits will speak of Republican infighting, but the real story is that for the Democrats, it is every man for himself. They are no longer a majority; instead they are a bunch of people all trying to get reelected in 2010.