Leader of the pack: Romney widens lead in new Gallup poll

Gallup: PRINCETON, NJ -- Republicans' support for Mitt Romney as their party's 2012 presidential nominee has increased significantly to 24%, compared with 17% in late May. As a result, Romney has widened his advantage over Sarah Palin in the latest update on rank-and-file Republicans' nomination preferences.

These results are based on a June 8-11 USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted on the eve of a candidate debate in New Hampshire that will be the first to include some of the better-known candidates.

Romney appears to have gotten a boost in recent weeks after the official announcement of his candidacy. Gallup's prior update of May 20-24 came just after former co-leaders Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump announced they were not candidates for the nomination; that poll showed Romney and Palin in a virtual tie. Since then, Romney's support has increased and Palin's has been flat, leaving Romney with an eight-percentage-point advantage. [MORE]

This is rather surprising. Romney has increased his lead despite having his announcement overshadowed and his new embrace of Global Warming. I think there are two factors going on here.

First, I believe Republicans are desperate to see Obama thrown out of office in 2012 and right now they are willing to turn a blind eye to ideological impurities. Currently polls show that Romney can beat Obama. How long will this attitude will last is hard to say. It is one thing to say you will accept any Republican over Obama in the abstract, it is quite another when you actually contemplate what that means.

Second, I believe that Romney's narrative of turning around failed businesses grows more and more appealing as our economy looks like it is beyond repair. This has always been Romney's strongest argument and unless other candidates can prove equally competent on the economy, Romney will own this issue.

Despite these advantages, I do believe Romney's support is only an inch deep. I say this because the establishment is hell bent on not nominating a true conservative. If Romney falters against any of the conservatives, I do believe that the establishment will swing behind Pawlenty, Huntsman or any other moderate Republican. I do believe Romney knows this too. This is probably why he isn't taking any chances with the Iowa Straw Poll.

Tonight's debate will be very telling of how strong Romney's support is. All will be gunning for him for sure. Pawlenty looks like he ready to tangle with Mitt and it will be fascinating to see how Romney does against the strongest conservative in the field, Herman Cain.

Via: Memeorandum
Via: Gallup Poll

Via: The Washington Post

Via: Hot Air

Gallup: Only blacks still believe in Obama?

Gallup’s latest poll out today shows that among blacks Obama has a high approval rating:

LA Times: The good news for President Obama is his popular support among blacks is holding steady at 91%.

The bad news is no other group of potential voters likes him that much.[...]

Democrats (79%) and liberals (75%) still like Obama a lot.

But after that, his approval percentage goes to the deep south. Support among even young people is down: 57%. Hispanics: 55%. Moderates: 54%. Unmarrieds: 53%. Easterners: 52%. Women: 47%. Midwesterners and Westerners: 45%.

Men: 43%. Southerners: 41%. Independents: 40%. Marrieds: 39%. Seniors: 38%. Whites: 36%. Conservatives: 23%.

Does this mean that blacks are still susceptible to the Hope and Change Kool Aid?  I don’t think so.  Blacks are not falling for the Kool Aid any more than whites or other minorities.  Whenever I discuss politics with other blacks, they complain about the exact same things everyone else does (jobs, Washington’s spending spree, the economy, etc).

What I think is going on with these numbers is racial pride or racial solidarity. Many blacks voted for Obama simply because he was black. So many blacks I know who voted for Obama could not tell you anything substantial about the policies Obama was pushing. Instead they often gave assertions about “it was time for a change”. Because so many of their votes were based on racial pride and solidarity, they do not want to Obama fail. They will stick with Obama no matter how bad his policies are for the nation or the black community itself.

I feel a little sorry for these brothers and sisters.  They allowed themselves to get swept up in the dream of electing the first black president. Throughout all the excitement, they neglected to make sure Obama was truly the right man for the job.

Via: Memeorandum

Via: LA Times

Thinking 2012: Obama, Hillary, Romney, Palin

I know that polls about 2012 at this point in time are worth less than zero, but fun of thinking forward is simply irresistible. With that caveat out of the way, Gallup has two polls out with some interesting numbers on 2012 match ups.

First poll is about the Democratic nomination. Here we find that a redo of the Obama v. Hillary match up, doesn’t play well for Hillary the second time around.

Gallup:  PRINCETON, NJ -- If Secretary of State Hillary Clinton were to challenge President Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2012, she would currently have the support of 37% of Democrats nationally, while 52% would support Obama.

Obama's strengths among Democrats in the hypothetical matchup with Clinton lie with college graduates and liberals, the latter of whom make up about 36% of this sample of 859 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Clinton does better among less well-educated Democrats and bests Obama among conservatives, who make up 22% of Democrats. Clinton does slightly better among women than among men.

[…]These data show that conservative Democrats are the least likely to support Obama when Clinton is his hypothetical opponent, suggesting that Obama may be most vulnerable to a possible challenge from that wing of his party.

I certainly hope Gallup revisits this question well after the midterm elections. Once the Democratic circular firing squad kicks into full gear, I don’t think Hillary’s numbers will be so low.   Hillary herself must feel a certain amount of confidence in knowing she can best Obama among women who are a major component of the Democrat Party.

Gallup’s other poll takes a peek at the Republican nomination for 2012 and finds Romney and Palin grabbing the top two spots.

Gallup: PRINCETON, NJ -- Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin lead other potential candidates in Republicans' preferences for the party's 2012 presidential nomination. Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul also receive more than 5% support from Republicans nationwide.

Romney and Palin are the top choices of both conservative and moderate or liberal Republicans, and in fact their support is similar among both groups. Of the top five candidates, Huckabee receives support that is most divided along ideological lines; he gets significantly more support among conservative Republicans.

Typically, support for presidential nomination candidates varies geographically, with candidates generally faring best in their home regions. This appears to be the case with most of the current group of GOP contenders, as Palin's support is highest in the West, and Huckabee gets somewhat higher support in the South. Romney shows particular strength in both the East, where he was governor of Massachusetts, and the West, where he served as chief executive of the 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Olympic games.

For the Republicans I believe Obama will the biggest determining factor. Depending on how Obama chooses to act with a  (hopefully) Republican controlled Congress, the frontrunner in this poll will change. Should Obama remain the way he is, any conservative candidate will stand in stark contrast.  Should Obama choose to do a Bill Clinton, then a more conservative candidate will be needed to draw sharp contrast.  Either way, I cannot imagine Republicans following typical fashion of nominating the next guy in line for 2012. This is because the Tea Party has gained strength and influence within the Republican Party.

My best guess at this point is that Romney will fade from the top stop once fellow Republicans begin bashing him about RomneyCare. For Palin her greatest threat is a fresh new Tea Party upstart, someone who shares her conservatism but who the left has not had time to malign.

I’ll close this post by cautioning once again, that speculation about 2012 at this point isn’t worth a damn.

Via: Memeorandum

Via: Gallup

Via: Gallup 

Obama’s approval among Independents now at 38%

Gallup: PRINCETON, NJ -- Thirty-eight percent of independents approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president, the first time independent approval of Obama has dropped below 40% in a Gallup Daily tracking weekly aggregate. Meanwhile, Obama maintains the support of 81% of Democrats, and his job approval among Republicans remains low, at 12%.

Over the past year, Obama has lost support among all party groups, though the decline has been steeper among independents than among Republicans or Democrats. Today's 38% approval rating among independents is 18 percentage points lower than the 56% found July 6-12, 2009. During the same period, his support has fallen nine points among Democrats (from 90% to 81%) and eight points among Republicans (from 20% to 12%).

Overall, 46% of Americans approve of the job Obama is doing as president in the June 28-July 4 aggregate, one point above his lowest weekly average. Obama's average weekly job approval rating has not been above 50% since Feb. 8-14, though it reached the 50% mark as recently as May 3-9. [MORE]

What I find surprising is that Obama has held on to 40% of Independents for this long. Over the past year it is become terribly obvious that Hope and Change is nothing like what was promised. Yet there still is 38% of Independents who approve of Obama’s performance.

Since these folks supposedly do not have an ideological axe to grind, I would love to know what exactly they approve of. If I had to guess, I would say their approval might be directly tied to how they benefit from Government largesse. I hope Gallup will delve a little deeper into this question soon.

While many may see these numbers as a welcome sign that Obama is destine to be a one termer, Ed Morrissey at Hot Air provides the appropriate caution: 

How dangerous is this for Obama?  Well, as I keep arguing, Obama will be President for the next two-and-a-half years regardless of what people think about him.  That’s a long time in politics, and Obama could make a Clintonian pirouette and become a supply-sider and free-marketeer in the second half of this term.  That helped Bill Clinton win back independents in 1996, and the same could happen to Obama.  If the economy roars back to life in 2011, Obama will regain some of his footing with independents, but getting that kind of recovery absolutely depends on dramatically changing course on policy, too. 

The danger is for Democrats in the midterms.  With this significant of a collapse in standing, two dynamics come into play.  First, the independents who turned out for Obama in 2008 will not show up in 2010.  Worse, those who do will show up to vote against Obama and his agenda.  This poll shows a high level of disillusionment among independents especially, and they can only demonstrate their anger at that by kicking Obama’s allies out of Congress.  Obama had better hope that satisfies them. 

In other words, lets not start counting 2012 chickens and let all stay focus on making sure the Democrats get the beating they deserve in 2010.

Via: Memeorandum

Via: Gallup

Via: Hot Air

Gallup: The Democrat brand hits an all time low

Gallup: PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans' favorable rating of the Democratic Party dropped to 41% in a late March USA Today/Gallup poll, the lowest point in the 18-year history of this measure. Favorable impressions of the Republican Party are now at 42%, thus closing the gap between the two parties' images that has prevailed for the past four years. 

Gallup last measured party images in late August/early September of last year. At that point, the Democratic Party enjoyed an 11-point favorable image advantage over the Republican Party. Now, the favorable ratings of the two parties are essentially tied. [MORE] 

Democrats should take note of these numbers. Unlike Rasmussen, which only polls registered voters, Gallup polls all adults. The all adults method is always more favorable to Democrats. For Gallup to find such a significant drop in favorability for Democrats should set off all sorts of alarms for the left. 

I don’t think that the current Democratic leadership will be concerned with these findings. That is because they long ago agreed to trade the party’s viability for lasting progressive change. For hardcore ideologues like Obama and Pelosi the Democrat Party is expendable if America is permanently stuck with the European socialist model.

The risk for conservatives is that undoing some of the Democrat’s changes may require the Republican Party to trash its brand as well. Currently, I just don’t see the current GOP leadership having that kind of fortitude.

For further reading on the Democrat’s decline, check out the discussions at Hot Air and Wizbang.

Via: Memeorandum

Via: Gallup

Well what do you know Tea Partiers are people too

The media has been sending out a steady message that the people who attend Tea Parties are racists from the fringe elements of the far right. However new polls out in the last two days paints quite a different picture.

Starting with a survey conducted by the Winston Group, we learn that a quarter of the Tea Party members are in fact Democrats and Independents. 

The national breakdown of the Tea Party composition is 57 percent Republican, 28 percent Independent and 13 percent Democratic, according to three national polls by the Winston Group, a Republican-leaning firm that conducted the surveys on behalf of an education advocacy group. Two-thirds of the group call themselves conservative, 26 are moderate and 8 percent say they are liberal. 

Next, we have Gallup with a new poll out today that shows Tea Party demographics match up with the demographics of America as a whole, including race! Take that, Keith Olbermann!

Finally, Rasmussen’s poll finds that on the issues most Americans views line up the Tea Party’s views  rather than Obama’s. 

On major issues, 48% of voters say that the average Tea Party member is closer to their views than President Barack Obama. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 44% hold the opposite view and believe the president’s views are closer to their own.

Not surprisingly, Republicans overwhelmingly feel closer to the Tea Party and most Democrats say that their views are more like Obama’s. Among voters not affiliated with either major political party, 50% say they’re closer to the Tea Party while 38% side with the President. 

Had the media simply attended the Tea Parties and reported responsibly, rather than trying to put out their own narrative, the data from these polls would have been known long ago. Unfortunately, as we learned from the 2008 election, the media is far more interested in shilling for the Democrats than bringing the truth to the masses.

Once the Tea Party can catch its breath after the 2010 elections, it really needs to turn its ire on the dinosaur media. The media has a lot to answer for with its irresponsible reporting.

Via: Memeorandum

Via: The Hill

Via: Gallup

Via: Rasmussen 

More proof that ObamaCare is dead, dead, dead

I am starting to feel a little sorry for some of the people on the left. They just cannot accept that ObamaCare has quietly died. All the nasty Op-eds, phone calls, Plan B’s scenarios and union threats will not revive it.

One need only look at the numbers to know why ObamaCare is dead. We have two polls out today that shows how the public feels about ObamaCare and they are not pretty. Gallup shows that 55% of the public wants ObamaCare shelved and other bipartisan alternatives looked at.  With 10 months to elections, there simply isn’t enough time for that. Look how long it took to cook up what they have now and that was with only Democrats working on it.

Then there is Rasmussen’s poll showing 61% of Americans want Congress to drop healthcare and work on jobs and the economy instead. There are tons and tons of polls that show jobs and the economy is what people want, not healthcare.

It would take 218 votes in the House to pass the current bill as is. It would take an additional 50 votes in the Senate to fix, the problems. There simply aren’t that many Democrats willing to go against those king of poll numbers after the Scott Brown victory.  Many Democrats would much rather put the whole ugly process of healthcare reform behind them and start working on something more positive to run on. 

So while, Nancy, Harry and Obama make little noises like they are still working on it, the truth is too many of the Congressional Democrats have moved on.

So go ahead, poke ObamaCare with a stick, see it is dead, dead, dead.

Via: Memeorandum

Via: Gallup

Via: Rasmussen

Gallup: Republicans Over Dems In 2010. Caution For Everyone

Gallup has released its latest poll of for a generic match up between Republicans and Democrats. Clearly there is good news for Republicans and bad news for Democrats.

PRINCETON, NJ -- Republicans have moved ahead of Democrats by 48% to 44% among registered voters in the latest update on Gallup's generic congressional ballot for the 2010 House elections, after trailing by six points in July and two points last month.

The real news is that independents are moving big time to the GOP.

Over the course of the year, independents' preference for the Republican candidate in their districts has grown, from a 1-point advantage in July to the current 22-point gap.

For the Democrats the warning signs are all there. Their majority is destined to go bye-bye as they continue to shove unpleasant legislation onto the American people while ignoring the economy. For the Republicans things are not sunshine and rainbows either. The base is still not onboard with the “slap a R on everybody” game plan. Michelle Malin has some pretty good examples of how conservatives are bucking the GOP here and here.


I see Republicans making gains in 2010 as well. This is why I find it crucial that we conservatives weed out the RINOs early. The GOP stands to gain votes simply because this is a two party system. When Americans recoil at one party their only course of action is to vote for the other. As such they will more than likely be voting GOP no matter what. If this is the case, why not give these people true conservatives who will stand by their principles and words. There is no need to elect Scozzafavas who are only going to be Democrats once elected.


Via: Memeorandum
Via: Gallup
Via: Michelle Malkin

Gallup: Hillary more popular than Obama

I bet someone is having a nice hardy cackle over this bit of news. 

PRINCETON, NJ -- Hillary Clinton lost the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination to Barack Obama, but in one respect she now ranks ahead of Obama. The president's current favorable rating of 56% is down 22 percentage points since January. Over the same time span, Clinton's favorable rating has changed little, and now, at 62%, it exceeds Obama's. MORE

Keeping a low profile has certainly helped Hillary.  I still believe that if the U.S.S. Obama starts to sink, old Hillary is going to jump ship and run against him in 2012.  Another Hillary presidential run in 2012 could carry the slogan; "I told ya so" (Palin could have the same one)!

Via: Memeorandum

Via: Gallup

America Rolls Conservative

New Gallop poll out today finds that more Americans call themselves conservative than anything else. Gallop finds that 40% of Americans consider themselves conservative, 35% call themselves moderate and only 21% call themselves liberal.

What is interesting is that after the election if you were to listen to the MSM and inside beltway pundits, you would have sworn America was now predominantly liberal. While self-identified liberals have crept up from 17% to 21% over the last 16 years, it is still quite clearly the minority.

A closer examination, finds that there are pretty large numbers of conservatives within both the moderate and liberal groups. Which brings us to the question, why are so many out there telling the GOP to go to the center? The data indicates that a candidate could run a on a true conservative message and win large segments of the electorate. Couple that conservative message with a bit of charisma and you begin to understand why the left is hell bent on destroying someone like Sarah Palin.

In 2008, Obama won because there was no true conservative at the top of the ticket. John McCain’s mixed and muddled conservative message was not enough to persuade large enough segments from moderate and conservative Democrats. They were easily taken in by Obama’s faux conservatism (read: pragmatism). Such a ploy would never have worked against a principled conservative like Reagan or Palin.

Gallup boss: More Americans oppose gun control than ever

Talk about welcome news.

"every bit of data is showing us that Americans are getting more conservative about gun control." Frank Newport, editor in chief Gallop Poll.

Even lefty polls from CNN and NBC backs this up.

A CNN poll conducted in April found that 39 percent of Americans wanted stricter gun control laws, down from 50 percent in 2000. Another 46 percent said the gun laws should stay as they are, while 15 percent said they should be loosened--up from 9 percent in 2000.

An Apr. 23-26 poll by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal found that support for curbing the sale of assault weapons and semiautomatic rifles has dropped from 75 percent in 1991 to 53 percent today.

Despite these very positive statistics, I expect Obama and the Democrats will still push for stricter gun laws that in the end only curtails our freedoms, rather than make us safer.