Monday, May 2, 2011

The politics of Obama's victory over Osama

Now that Osama Bin Ladin has been killed under Obama's watch, people are starting to wonder how this will effect Obama's political prospects for 2012.  In the immediate future it is pretty obvious that Obama will get a bump in the polls, as well as he should. From all accounts Obama chose the more gutsy plan of sending in Navy Seals rather than a Tomahawk cruise missile.  The payoff is that we have proof Osama is dead.

Despite the benefits and the good will, I think the ladies of The View are way off in thinking that Obama has 2012 in the bag now.  The bump Obama will receive from bagging Osama won't last all the way to November 2012.  As Will Jacobson from Legal Insurrection points out 2012 is all about the economy and big government. So long as gasoline, food prices and the threat of higher taxes loom, Obama's 2012 prospects will remain shaky.

The only way I see Osama's death translating into guaranteed votes for Obama in 2012, is if we suffer another attack and Obama makes a credible case that he is the one who will get us justice.  Other than that, Obama can only use the killing of Osama to deflect Republican criticism that he is weak when it comes to fighting terrorism.

For Republican's challenging Obama in 2012, the need to sharpen their attacks and messages on the economy has become even more crucial.  They must also not get too far ahead of themselves in praising Obama's success. If they do, they risk taking the War On Terror completely off the table in 2012.

Via: Memeorandum
Via: Five Thirty Five blog
Via: NewsBusters
Via: Legal Insurrection


Adam said...

I hope you're right. The 2012 election is a political epoch away and anything can happen. Unfortunately I'm still not convinced the GOP has a strong front runner to run in opposition and being "the President that got Bin Laden" will be a good feather in Obama's cap to roll out as needed.

Like with the last election 2012 will be all about Obama. 2008 was about whether or not the USA would trust Obama to run the country; 2012 will be about whether or not they still do.

FIREBIRD said...

Two comments - first, he DID choose the gutsy option but I think it was because if the mission failed, it wouldn't be the publicity nightmare that blowing up the compound, killing innocents (yeah, right!) and missing OBL would have been - he's looking out for the PR
And secondly, as I posted this morning - Obama didn't kill OBL - it was a military guy, who just two weeks ago was darn close to NOT getting a paycheck from the CinC

Andrew33 said...

The death of Bin Laden will have NO impact on politics going forward. In about a week, we will begin debate on the "budget ceiling pending collapse" and that will justifiably end any bump in favorability BHO wins from taking credit for this.
I think we have just seen BHO throw another used up ally under the rug just like Farrakhan, Wright,and so many others. BHO has befriended people when it suited him and ditched when he was done. We knew where that bunker was for years. Why did he wait until now to kill UBL? Just days after releasing his Birth Certificate...Could BHO be tying up loose ends...and for what?

Anonymous said...

I guess he's glad that he didn't close Gitmo and followed Bush's steps to get to this point.

But of course, liberal followers believe Obama magically woke up one day, channeled his Hope and Change, ordered a bilateral, NATO and French-led operation and results in the death of Osama.

From some of the facebook comments I see, that seems to be the case.

2nd Anony

Osumashi Kinyobe said...

The death of bin Laden is certainly a boon to Obama. The public may rejoice that one major player on the terrorism scene is gone but when they realise that they are STILL unemployed, that kill might not mean as much in 2012. Right now, this kill looks really big for Obama and I believe he will milk it for all he can.

This came about BEFORE a landslide victory for the Conservative party in Canada (something that has, understandably, been off the radar in the States).

bd said...

with you abc, toast the demise of evil personified

am coming to believe that bho is a hard-core leftist ideologue w/ a heavy dose of narcissism and accentuated arrogance all of which will prove to be an anathema to ordinary americans - no matter what good/right he does or what lies/double-crosses he employs, his true self will continually surface - wherein, he is definitely politically vulnerable, the sycophant media not withstanding

unfortunately, the growing entitlement mentality (albeit for pittance), like-minded committed leftists, celebrity dilettantes, and useful idiot do-gooder liberals give bho a solid base of support

the republicans need to jettison the establishment congeniality and present strong, coherent, conservative alternatives in presidential candidates, governance propositions, and ideological principles - none of which is happening yet...

still liking sp and aw

Tyrone said...

You said exactly what I was thinking - that yes it's great for his campaign that this happened during his term, but when all is said and done, there's still high unemployment, food and gas prices are through the roof, and November 2012 is a LONG ways away. I don't care how often the media beats this poor horse, the average American feels real pain every time they go to the grocery store or fill up their gas tank. And being told by the Campaigner in Chief to go buy a new vehicle is not going to help much. If the GOP can stay on the economic message, and present real solutions, bin Laden's death isn't going to help Obama at all.

Anonymous said...

Ohh....there are Lots of reasons I call Whoopie and Barbara's show The Spew.

This isn't going to give Obama the bump I'm sure he hoped for, plus the election is a year and a half away. Plus, one right decision
doesn't make up for So. Many. Wrong Ones.

SB Smith

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