Public Policy Polling has released a poll showing Blanche Lincoln (D-Arkansas) badly trailing Republican John Boozman 56-33. Boozman leads Lincoln despite being less well known. PPP also finds that Boozman leads all other possible Democrats:
Because of Lincoln's precarious position we tested some other potential Democratic candidates against Boozman as well, and while most of them do better the numbers are still an indication that it will be hard for anyone to keep the seat in the party's hands. Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter basically polls the same as Lincoln, trailing 53-30. General Wesley Clark trails 51-36. Congressman Mike Ross is at a 48-37 disadvantage. And perhaps most surprising, highly popular and even more highly unlikely to run for the Senate Mike Beebe trails 44-43 in a hypothetical contest despite a 59/22 approval rating that rates among the best for any politician we've polled across the country this year.
PPP attributes these numbers to two things, Arkansas' reluctance to elect another Democrat and Lincoln getting creamed over healthcare. On healthcare conservatives find Lincoln too liberal and liberals find her too conservative. I think this is going to be the problem for many “moderate” Democrats running in Red States.
For the "moderate" Democrat there is simply no way to please everyone under the administration's current agenda. If a moderate votes for the agenda, they turn off the conservatives in their home state, if they vote against the agenda they lose support of their liberal base. This dilemma for moderates is yet another reason for all this rushing to pass the stimulus, cap and trade and healthcare. Pelosi, Reid and Obama must have know these guys would be toast by the end of the year.
Check out the whole report here.