Monday, June 13, 2011

Leader of the pack: Romney widens lead in new Gallup poll

Gallup: PRINCETON, NJ -- Republicans' support for Mitt Romney as their party's 2012 presidential nominee has increased significantly to 24%, compared with 17% in late May. As a result, Romney has widened his advantage over Sarah Palin in the latest update on rank-and-file Republicans' nomination preferences.
These results are based on a June 8-11 USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted on the eve of a candidate debate in New Hampshire that will be the first to include some of the better-known candidates.
Romney appears to have gotten a boost in recent weeks after the official announcement of his candidacy. Gallup's prior update of May 20-24 came just after former co-leaders Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump announced they were not candidates for the nomination; that poll showed Romney and Palin in a virtual tie. Since then, Romney's support has increased and Palin's has been flat, leaving Romney with an eight-percentage-point advantage. [MORE]
This is rather surprising. Romney has increased his lead despite having his announcement overshadowed and his new embrace of Global Warming. I think there are two factors going on here.

First, I believe Republicans are desperate to see Obama thrown out of office in 2012 and right now they are willing to turn a blind eye to ideological impurities. Currently polls show that Romney can beat Obama. How long will this attitude will last is hard to say. It is one thing to say you will accept any Republican over Obama in the abstract, it is quite another when you actually contemplate what that means.

Second, I believe that Romney's narrative of turning around failed businesses grows more and more appealing as our economy looks like it is beyond repair. This has always been Romney's strongest argument and unless other candidates can prove equally competent on the economy, Romney will own this issue.

Despite these advantages, I do believe Romney's support is only an inch deep. I say this because the establishment is hell bent on not nominating a true conservative. If Romney falters against any of the conservatives, I do believe that the establishment will swing behind Pawlenty, Huntsman or any other moderate Republican. I do believe Romney knows this too. This is probably why he isn't taking any chances with the Iowa Straw Poll.

Tonight's debate will be very telling of how strong Romney's support is. All will be gunning for him for sure. Pawlenty looks like he ready to tangle with Mitt and it will be fascinating to see how Romney does against the strongest conservative in the field, Herman Cain.

Via: Memeorandum
Via: Gallup Poll

Via: Hot Air


Gary said...

Romney is a good man. But just Google the photo of him signing Romney-care into law. There he is with Ted Kennedy having the time of his life.

Romney, like most Republicans, is a hybrid: a Conservative Socialist. They love Big Brother government as long as it gets them votes.

Just a conservative girl said...

Who are these people? I only personally know one person who supports Romney, and she is from CT. CT and conservative don't really go together. Republicans are typically Scott Brownish. I have seen one blogger stick up for Romney. Just one.

I do somewhat disagree with you that Romney will be another four years of Obama. Yes, he will do little to roll back the nanny state. He may even add a little to it, but he won't do what Obama is determined to do and turn us into France. One of my most important issues is will he sign a repeal of Obamacare? If so, if he gets the nomination I will support him. I have one issue that I will not bend on when it comes to presidential selection. No very young children in the White House. So I can't support Santorum. So anyone else that is willing to sign the repeal and doesn't have young children is ok with me.

Justine said...

I love your political analyses! It's amazing that you don't do this for a living.

I remain, as always, flabbergasted that anyone could find Mitt Romney in any way an appealing candidate. As Mark Steyn (or was it Jonah Goldberg?) said in a recent podcast, "Mitt's got a very authentic inauthenticity." He leaves me the most cold of any in the field. And, yes, I'll vote for him; but, I can't help but think, "After all this country's been through, is Mitt Romney really the best that the GOP has to offer the nation? Really?"

Clifton B said...


You are so right about Romney being a hybrid. I just don't get the feeling from him that he truly has the correct vision for America. I do get the feeling that he thinks it is his turn to sit in the big chair.

Clifton B said...


I too only know like maybe 3 people who support Mitt and their intensity is nothing like Palin or Cain supporters. Where are all these smitten Mittens?

When I say Romney would be like Obama's 2nd term, I don't mean he will be acting like Obama, but I do believe he won't work nearly aggressively enough to undo Obama's policies. The first strong bit of resistance and I can see Mitt giving up.

Can you explain the no small children thing?

If Romney ends up being our nominee, I will vote for him, but forget about me giving $$, making phone calls, knocking on doors, defending him on this blog or anything else. Ain't gonna happen.

Clifton B said...


Why thank you, maybe I should try to sell my talents to Fox News. Karauthammer is becoming way too jaded.

I too want to know where are all these smitten Mitten supporters coming from. Everyone I know doesn't believe a word coming out of his mouth.

I too will vote for him if I have to, but I am not doing much else. Like you I cannot believe he is the best we have to offer.

Just a conservative girl said...

I personally believe anyone with young children shouldn't be president. I think the fishbowl that the children are forced to live in is unhealthy for them. They don't really get a normal childhood. Simple things like trick or treating is really out of the question due to security concerns.

While it may be a wonderful experience for young kids, it could easily go the other way as well. I truly question the judgement of anyone that has children that are not even teenagers yet wanting to president.

Not that I ever would have voted for Obama anyway, but I did say this when he was running. His daughters are very young and it has to be difficult to hear the things that are said about their parents. You cannot possibly protect them from every source. I am sure that Malia and Sasha hear at least some of the things said. It is not easy to hear your father called all kinds of names and hear you mom called fat (Michelle is not fat) and it not have some effect.

Not to call you out, but if I remember correctly you kind of called out Daniels for bowing out of the race due to family concerns. I respect him all the more because of it.

I realize that mine is a minority opinion and very old fashioned, but it is how I feel. It is one of the reasons that I cannot support a Palin nomination. As much as I hate to say this, if she gets the nomination I will not vote for her. I can't in good conscience put her children in that position. I will either leave the presidential box blank or will vote third party. This is a principle I cannot or will not bend on.

Having children late in life has made me a very protective mommy. I would NEVER put my children in that position and I honestly question those who do. Your children are young once and if you screw up there is no do over. You get one shot at it. If you are not willing to put their well being above your own, then don't bring them home from hospital.

I caused quite the uproar on Potluck when I did post on this. Rush had a caller who said the same kind of thing and he said that she must be a troll because conservatives don't think like this. I am proof that they do. Family must always come first.

Scott said...

So, JACG, I'm curious how you justify assuming the duty of determining how other folks should raise their kids with conservative values? That's a huge warning sign for me. One of the things that I look for as an indelible mark of a progressive is their belief that they know what's better for my kids than I do. I can't square the circle of anyone having that attitude and still being in any sense "conservative". Maybe "Just Another Meddling Social Engineer" would be a better screen name.

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