Rudy's theory of the race: In the fall of 2007, he decided he couldn't compete with both Mitt Romney and John McCain in New Hampshire, and disastrously decided to try to pull back there and pitch his tent in Florida. This year, he'll commit everything to New Hampshire, where he thinks he has a good shot at beating Romney—whom he criticized there earlier this week. He then thinks he can beat whichever more socially conservative candidate(s) is left by winning what are still likely to be winner-take-all primaries in big states like California, New York, and New Jersey.
Rudy's message: I'm tough enough to put our fiscal house in order and to protect us from enemies abroad. The U.S. in 2012 is in bad shape—like New York in 1993. The budget crisis is as severe—and seemingly intractable—as the crime/welfare crisis was in New York then. Rudy dealt with that when people said it couldn't be done. He'll deal with this.Giuliani was my second choice in 2008, right after Fred Thompson went no where. I do believe him when he says he is tough enough to take on the heady challenges of 2012. Unfortunately, many of those challenges require someone with strong conservative principles to guide them in undoing the damage Obama and the Dems have made. I am not sure if Rudy fits that bill.
Furthermore, in 2008 many of the conservatives did not flock to Rudy because he has RINO qualities. In 2012, conservatives are even more dead set against RINOs. I just don't see how Rudy thinks he can over come that problem this time around.
I do think he has what it takes to knock off Romney, Pawlenty and definitely Huntsman, but I think Rudy with struggle mightily against conservatives like Palin, Cain and Bachmann. Especially against Palin and Bachmann who both have records of being every bit as tough as Rudy.
Given how unhappy so many Republicans are with the choices at hand, it still is possible for Rudy to make his case. Time will tell.
Via: The Weekly Standard