Monday, June 6, 2011

Not so crazy - Howard Dean: Palin could beat Obama

Howard Dean is now the latest most notable lefty to warn Palin could beat Obama (Andrew Sullivan, and Donna Brazile are others). Dean warns that with a weak economy Palin has a chance.
The Hill: Howard Dean, the former Democratic National Committee chairman who helped Democrats capture the White House in 2008, warns that Sarah Palin could defeat President Obama in 2012.
Dean says his fellow Democrats should beware of inside-the-Beltway conventional wisdom that Obama would crush Palin in a general-election contest next year.
“I think she could win,” Dean told The Hill in an interview Friday. “She wouldn’t be my first choice if I were a Republican but I think she could win.”

Dean warns the sluggish economy could have more of a political impact than many Washington strategists and pundits assume.
“Any time you have a contest — particularly when unemployment is as high as it is — nobody gets a walkover,” Dean said. “Whoever the Republicans nominate, including people like Sarah Palin, whom the inside-the-Beltway crowd dismisses — my view is if you get the nomination of a major party, you can win the presidency, I don’t care what people write about you inside the Beltway,” Dean said. [MORE]
Whether Howard Dean actually meant this remains to be seen. However, what he says is true.

The media is in overdrive trying to sell the narrative that Obama is hard to beat in 2012. They are using early polling to show that Obama will beat all the Republican 2012 hopefuls. This is nonsense. The 2012 elections are just under a year and a half away.

In politics a year and a half might as well 100 years. It is impossible to predict what the political climate will be that far out. Just think back a year and a half ago, would you have thought we would be at war in Libya or have killed Osama Bin Laden or that Obama would have finally release his birth certificate? None of these things could be known, yet they all have political implications.

What we can say with certainty about 2012 is that if the economy doesn't start making significant improvements, Obama's reelection chances will grow thinner and thinner. Americans are already growing impatient with this economy. Another year and a half of this economy and it hard to imagine a majority of Americans choosing four more years of Obama, even if Palin is the candidate.

I have always held that beating Obama in 2012 will require three things. First, one must hit Obama hard for his failures on the economy, jobs and the deficit, while at the same time offer a clear alternative path forward. Second, one must not offer up a bunch of distraction so that Obama can avoid discussing his failures. Third, one must be a real brawler, ready to take all the hits Obama will throw and be ready to dish it out in equal measure. Any Republican who can consistently do all three things will have more than a good chance of beating Obama.

Via: Memeorandum
Via: NewsMax
Via: Htrnews
Via: The Hill

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